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The equation is simple: Afghanistan must win to reach the Super Four, otherwise Bangladesh go through. Sri Lanka, meanwhile, only need to avoid a record-breaking defeat.

For instance, if Sri Lanka set 150 batting first, Afghanistan would need to chase it in 11.4 overs to edge them out and send Bangladesh through. If Afghanistan bat first and make 150, Sri Lanka must be restricted to 84 or fewer for Bangladesh to qualify. In short, Afghanistan’s hopes hinge entirely on victory, while Bangladesh are banking on either a Sri Lankan win or a massive Afghan triumph.



This is modern cricket in the 2020s—where India and Pakistan won’t exchange handshakes but still meet at every ICC and ACC event, with tournament formats often designed to maximize their encounters. The rest have little choice but to fit into that commercial reality.

Sri Lanka, though, are hardly safe. They almost slipped against Hong Kong earlier this week after another Pathum Nissanka fifty, and just last month were skittled for 80 by Zimbabwe. They’ve also lost three of their eight T20Is against Afghanistan.

Both sides lean heavily on their bowlers. Afghanistan boast Rashid Khan, Sri Lanka have Wanindu Hasaranga—two world-class legspinners who also chip in with the bat. Allrounders provide both teams with depth and flexibility, but their batting orders remain fragile, especially in the lower middle order against top opposition.

Team news
Afghanistan, despite the setback against Bangladesh, are likely to stick with the same XI.

Afghanistan (probable): Saqidullah Ataq, Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), Ibrahim Zadran, Gulbadin Naib, Mohammad Nabi, Azmatullah Omarzai, Karim Janat, Rashid Khan (capt.), Noor Ahmad, AM Ghazanfar, Fazalhaq Farooqi.

Sri Lanka, too, are expected to stay unchanged. Maheesh Theekshana went wicketless versus Hong Kong but kept things tight, while Matheesha Pathirana and Fernando may miss out again.

Sri Lanka (probable): Pathum Nissanka, Kusal Mendis (wk), Kamil Mishara, Kusal Perera, Charith Asalanka (capt.), Kamindu Mendis, Dasun Shanaka, Wanindu Hasaranga, Dushmantha Chameera, Maheesh Theekshana, Nuwan Thushara.